As we approach the official announcement of the Social Security 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), many recipients are eagerly awaiting news on what changes might affect their monthly checks.
With only four months to go before the official announcement, predictions are already circulating, and I’m here to share my thoughts on what the COLA could look like in 2026.
Social Security COLA adjustments are designed to help keep up with inflation, but these increases aren’t always as impactful as one might expect.
In this article, I’ll cover two predictions that I feel confident about regarding the 2026 COLA, highlighting what seniors can expect and how to prepare for the future.
1. The 2026 COLA Likely Won’t Exceed the 2025 Increase
The 2025 Social Security COLA came in at 2.5%, the smallest adjustment since 2021. As we look ahead, estimates from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) suggest the 2026 COLA will fall within a similar range.
Their latest prediction, released in May 2025, forecasts a 2.4% increase, which is slightly higher than previous predictions of 2.2% and 2.3%.
Why the 2026 COLA is Expected to be Similar to 2025
Social Security COLA adjustments are based on inflation data from the third quarter of the year, comparing the price changes between the previous year’s figures and the current year’s. Given the current trend of inflation, it’s highly unlikely that the 2026 COLA will exceed the 2025 COLA.
However, a significant inflation spike in the months leading up to the official announcement could push the 2026 COLA higher.
But, even if the COLA increases, it’s essential to understand that larger COLAs don’t always translate into a higher quality of life.
The extra money from these adjustments is typically eaten up by rising costs in everyday goods and services.
2. Cash-Strapped Seniors May Be Disappointed
While a 2.4% increase might sound like good news, it won’t be enough to alleviate the financial strain for many retirees.
According to TSCL‘s data, the average Social Security check will rise from $2,002 in May 2025 to $2,050 in 2026, resulting in a modest $48 increase. While this is certainly better than no increase at all, it’s unlikely to drastically improve the living standards for many seniors.
Why the 2026 COLA Could Fall Short for Seniors
The current Social Security system has seen a decline in purchasing power over the years. In fact, the average Social Security check today buys approximately 20% less than it did in 2010, according to TSCL.
Therefore, a 2.4% COLA might only minimally counteract the ongoing inflation and may even exacerbate the loss in buying power.
How Seniors Can Prepare for the 2026 COLA
Given that the 2026 COLA will likely fall short for many seniors, it’s important to explore other avenues of support.
Seniors should consider relying on personal savings or even taking up a part-time job to bridge the gap.
Additionally, you might be eligible for government programs such as Supplemental Security Income (SSI) to further supplement your monthly Social Security benefits.
The Future of COLAs: Will Seniors Get Relief?
While the 2026 COLA may not be a game-changer for seniors, there is hope for future adjustments that could better reflect seniors’ unique cost-of-living challenges.
A long-term solution might involve using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) to calculate inflation.
This index takes into account the spending habits of seniors and could result in larger COLA increases in the future.
However, the CPI-E is not currently used to determine COLAs, and although legislators have raised this idea before, there are no immediate plans to make this change.
Projected Social Security COLA Increases
| Year | Predicted COLA Increase | Average Benefit Increase | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.5% | $2,002 to $2,050 | Smallest COLA since 2021 |
| 2026 | 2.4% | $2,050 to $2,098 | Likely similar to 2025 COLA |
| 2027 | TBD | TBD | Potential future increases |
The 2026 Social Security COLA is expected to be modest, likely falling within the 2.4% range. While this increase will help, it won’t make a significant difference in seniors’ financial stability.
To cope with rising costs, seniors may need to depend on other forms of financial assistance or adjust their budgets accordingly.
FAQs:
What is the 2026 Social Security COLA expected to be?
The 2026 COLA is predicted to be around 2.4%, slightly less than the 2025 COLA.
Will the 2026 COLA significantly improve seniors’ quality of life?
Unfortunately, the 2.4% increase is not expected to provide a substantial improvement, as inflation continues to erode purchasing power.
Can COLAs improve in the future for seniors?
Future COLAs could be larger if the government adopts the CPI-E for adjustments, but no immediate plans exist for this change.